The Formula 1 season will come to life on Wednesday as the 20 drivers get just three days of testing to fettle their new cars.
An utterly one-sided contest in 2023 was dominated by Red Bull. When the cars hit the track for the first time together this year, many will be hoping to see signs of a more competitive championship ahead.
Here’s what to watch for when testing begins at the Bahrain International Circuit.
Is Red Bull’s eye-catching RB20 another leap forward?
Intriguingly, these have invited comparison with Mercedes’ W14, the concept of which the team discarded at the end of its first win-less season in 12 years. The appearance of vertical sidepods and tall engine covers on the RB20 indicate their design team see potential in these ideas, though despite their outward similarities they differ in shape and positioning to those seen on the Mercedes.
A straightforward, evolutionary RB20 would have indicated the team did not believe it could make a significant step in the third year of the current technical regulations. But this much-changed car has sent an ominous message to Red Bull’s rivals that they are poised to take another stride forwards.
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Will we see a surprise change in the pecking order?
In the final year of the last set of technical regulations, Mercedes struggled with their car throughout testing due to a change in the floor rules. Red Bull were suddenly on par with them, and the scene was set for a close championship fight.
The following year Ferrari propelled themselves into contention and went into the first race of the season hotly tipped to win – which they did. And 12 months ago the buzz was all around Aston Martin, who leapt from the midfield to become the closest challenger to Red Bull at the beginning of the season. Has another team made a similar step forwards?
No season-starting setback at McLaren?
McLaren admitted at their launch last year they faced a compromised start to the season having hit a snag in the development of their latest car. As a result they failed to score at the Bahrain opener for the second year in a row – a particularly unsatisfactory development for the team which is part-owned by Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund.
At least that setback proved the precursor to a remarkable fightback later in the season which saw them recover to fourth in the championship. Surely McLaren can avoid a poor start for a third season in a row…
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Third time lucky for Mercedes?
Their star driver Lewis Hamilton is heading out of the door at the end of the year. Mercedes’ claim to being one of F1’s foremost teams has never looked shakier.
That will all change if the W15 provides the change in fortunes the team craves. It took an early decision to change direction last year, and under reinstated technical director James Allison the new car is a dramatic departure from its predecessor. But is it enough to stop the rot?
Are Ferrari still leading the charge?
For the new season Ferrari believe they have built on the progress they made with their car in the middle of last year, as they began to uncover the reasons behind its unforgiving handling and peaky performance characteristics.
The only team besides Red Bull to win a race last year should expect to start the new season as their closest competition. Though Ferrari are always under scrutiny, Hamilton’s impending arrival will only add to that.
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Does F1 now have four Red Bulls?
But beyond the latest superficial change of identity there has been significant developments at this team. Laurent Mekies has arrived from Ferrari to head up the sporting side of the operation, former FIA man Peter Bayer is running the wider operation and the car will draw more heavily on components shared with Red Bull.
The team made rapid gains over the final races of last season and have ambitions of being genuine contenders in the future. Many are already expecting RB to make significant progress this year – and anticipating some disquiet may accompany it if they do.
Is the midfield going to get even closer?
This entire cluster of 20 cars was often covered by remarkably small gaps. The new technical regulations introduced in 2022 may not have produced the kind of close racing many hoped they might, but the goal of closing up the gaps between the various teams was clearly met.
This trend is expected to continue in 2024, especially as the effects of the cost cap are felt by the top teams and the likes of Aston Martin and McLaren feel the benefit of their new facilities. Throughout launch season, many drivers commented on how close they expect the season to be, and testing will give us the first indication of whether they’re right.
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Just how far off are Haas?
As Komatsu noted, their preparations for 2024 were disrupted by the decision to produce a heavily updated version of last year’s car for the final few races. They can therefore expect a difficult start to the new season.
Can anyone run a stint like Red Bull?
The key to Red Bull’s competitiveness last year wasn’t simply speed but their ability to eke out a set of tyres over a race stint. This is the area where their rivals most need to make gains.
The Bahrain International Circuit will only offer a single snapshot of how successful they have been. Its abrasive surface makes it one of the most demanding tracks for tyre management, so will hopefully give useful insight into whether Red Bull still hold a significant advantage in this area.
How will the Horner situation be resolved?
But the pressure is growing on Red Bull to resolve the situation. Yesterday Formula One Management said it “hopes the matter will be clarified at the earliest opportunity.”
How soon that is likely to be may emerge over the coming days. But Red Bull have given every indication so far they will not allow the pace to be dictated by anyone but themselves.
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Over to you
What are you most keen to find out from pre-season testing? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Formula 1
- Pictures: Red Bull’s aggressive new sidepod design revealed in detail at test
- Pictures: New views of Mercedes W15 running in Bahrain test
- Pictures: 2024 F1 pre-season testing day one: Bahrain
- Pictures: Haas VF-24 officially presented as testing begins in Bahrain
- Driver line-up confirmed for sole pre-season F1 test
Jere (@jerejj)
19th February 2024, 14:30
Is Red Bull’s eye-catching RB20 another leap forward? – Maybe.
Will we see a surprise change in the pecking order? – Unlikely with stable technical regs.
No season-starting setback at McLaren? – Hopefully, they could indeed finally start a season in good form.
Third time lucky for Mercedes? – I wish but I’m skeptical simultaneously.
Are Ferrari still leading the charge? – Last season, they weren’t really leading the charge per se for quite a large part, so I’m doubtful about them for the upcoming season, but hopefully proven wrong.
Does F1 now have four Red Bulls? – Definitely not.
Is the midfield going to get even closer? – Hopefully.
Just how far off are Haas? – Not necessarily a lot lap time-wise relative to the remaining midfield, but probably slowest nevertheless.
Can anyone run a stint like Red Bull? – I very much hope so for competition’s sake.
How will the Horner situation be resolved? – Sacking might be the most likely outcome, but we’ll see.
What are you most keen to find out from pre-season testing? – More or less the same as above.
Pete
20th February 2024, 0:35
I’d say:
Is Red Bull’s eye-catching RB20 another leap forward? – I think it would be a surprise if they haven’t. They clearly understood the regs better than the rest and whilst the rest are trying to create a 2023 Red Bull car, Red Bull are moving on from that. It might take them a few races to get fully up to speed but I think they’ll be winning fairly easily, at least by the European rounds.
Will we see a surprise change in the pecking order? – Not at the top but we’ve seen teams jump forward when they get their concept sorted so I’d expect a couple of teams to be this year’s Aston Martin.
No season-starting setback at McLaren? – I think they’ll start ok but might struggle for podiums against Ferrari and Mercedes.
Third time lucky for Mercedes? – I wouldn’t say lucky… They tried their own concept twice and failed but this time, it looks much more like what we’re seeing other quick teams doing so I’d expect them to start the season battling Ferrari for podiums.
Are Ferrari still leading the charge? – They’ll be where they were last year – 2nd or 3rd fastest car but with awful strategic decisions and plenty of driver mistakes.
Does F1 now have four Red Bulls? – In some ways, yes. We now have the “Fast Red Bulls” and the “Slow Red Bulls.” In terms of pace, I think the Slow Bulls will be fighting Haas, Sauber and Williams again at the back.
Is the midfield going to get even closer? – I think so – they’re all converging on a similar concept now so I think it’ll be a pretty good battle in the middle.
Just how far off are Haas? – As above, they’ll be in the bottom 4 teams. I don’t think they’ll be far off the pace of the rest of the teams near the back.
Can anyone run a stint like Red Bull? – Impossible to say. They’ve been bold and made some big changes to their car so we don’t know how it’ll run in comparison to last year.
How will the Horner situation be resolved? – I don’t think it’s appropriate to speculate about something I have next to no information on. If he’s found guilty, I assume he’ll leave the team. If he’s found innocent, he’ll be fine. If it’s inconclusive, that’s where things get a little bit more difficult to manage.
What are you most keen to find out from pre-season testing? – I always like comparing the pictures of the cars each day with the launch version to see what new parts are added throughout testing and then the same for the first race.
David BR (@david-br)
19th February 2024, 16:37
The Red Bull adoption of a more zero pod design makes sense after they’ve developed such a stable suspension/floor aerodynamic set up. If the other two Red Bull’s are finishing 3rd and 4th this season, may as well call it Formula Red Bull. Perhaps Horner might get demoted to running the B team / Red Bull peloton?
Ruben
19th February 2024, 20:18
What will we learn about testing? — Not enough to draw conclusions from it for the entire season ahead.
Will F1 journalists try to do so anyway? — Yes.
Will every article mention the fastest time of the day? — Yes.
Does that time count for anything? —Hardly.
Will the Horner case be resolved? — I’m not sure how much space there is left to resolve on Horner’s side after the way the media jumped on a investigation in progress.
I know that within our current world it’s hard to defend yourself against a higher placed male colleague, so every necessary support should be given. But the eagerness with which everyone seeks to make news out of barely anything is disappointing.
GeeMac (@geemac)
20th February 2024, 4:42
Is Red Bull’s eye-catching RB20 another leap forward? They were miles ahead last season and could probably have easily wrapped up the ’24 titles with a mild evolution of RB19. The fact they have gone so radical on RB20 must mean they have found something, so most likely this is a “yes”.
Will we see a surprise change in the pecking order? Probably not in the top 6, but the bottom 4 will be shuffled about I would have thought.
No season-starting setback at McLaren? They made a step change in the middle of last season that suggests they finally understand this rule set, so most likely they will hit the ground running.
Third time lucky for Mercedes? That depends on the answer to question 1 and whether they fully understand what made the RB19 so quick.
Are Ferrari still leading the charge? Did they really lead the charge last season? Being quick over one lap and then shredding their tyres suggests not. But F1 needs a strong Ferrari so I sort of hope so.
Does F1 now have four Red Bulls? According to Zak Brown, yes. According to everyone else, no.
Is the midfield going to get even closer? Almost certainly.
Just how far off are Haas? I don’t think they’ll be cut adrift, but they are definitely on the back foot.
Can anyone run a stint like Red Bull? As fans we’d better hope so, otherwise this will be a long season for anyone who doesn’t support Red Bull and Max Verstappen.
How will the Horner situation be resolved? If the Guardian has its way he’ll be forced to do a walk of shame through the streets of Milton Keynes. If they run a correct, thorough, independent process, he’ll be kicked out if he is guilty and absolved if he isn’t.
What are you most keen to find out from pre-season testing? If Williams have made a step forward. Vowles seems positive and is saying words like “aggressive” which gives me hope, but we’ve still not seen the car so I am tempering my expectations. If they can make a genuine leap forward Alpine are there for the taking.
BasCB (@bascb)
20th February 2024, 7:09
I actually don’t think the Red Bull car really is a “leap forward”. I think it will be about as fast, could well be staying ahead of the field by about as much. The step forward is more likely to be that they won’t run out of scope for development during the season, since they now have a new avenue of optimisation they can built out to STAY ahead.
MacLeod (@macleod)
20th February 2024, 8:00
Is Red Bull’s eye-catching RB20 another leap forward? – There is a reason why they went the other way then the evolution of the RB19. They couldn’t get more performance with the RB 19 development side. So they went for a new concept.
Will we see a surprise change in the pecking order? – Ferrari and Mercedes will swap positions, McLaren could jump 1 of those top teams and RB (racing bulls) will jump several positions to 5-6
No season-starting setback at McLaren? – As how they present things i think they will have a running start.
Third time lucky for Mercedes? – Luck doesn’t count for anything in development sports.
Are Ferrari still leading the charge? – Looking at their performance the last 3-4 rounds of last year it could be so
Does F1 now have four Red Bulls? – No, the chassis is total difference maybe half way the season when the adjust their chassis & floor.
Is the midfield going to get even closer? – That is most likely
Just how far off are Haas? – I have no hope that they leave the last spot.
Can anyone run a stint like Red Bull? – Depends on their development so we will see.
How will the Horner situation be resolved? – That is not for us the decide or wish.
What are you most keen to find out from pre-season testing? – that is why i watch testing so i see surprises good or bad i love everything of testing.
schooner (@schooner)
20th February 2024, 17:53
Comparing lap times to last year’s as the new season progresses could be interesting. I can’t help but wonder if the RB19 might still be the car to beat? With Max behind the wheel, that is.
Cris
21st February 2024, 7:15
What would be funny is if RB somehow got the new car wron, at least to start the season, and the Junior team running the 2023 RB will be faster.